Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
